Our fantasy football Week 3 recap had a little of everything: a Falcons quarterback who actually showed up, a 56-yard field goal with one second left, a Monday night train wreck that nearly claimed one of our own, and a listener question that deserves a real answer. Dex, Pru, and Chiz broke it all down, and we're closing in on 900 Shrewdness members, up from under 200 less than two months ago. Thank you. Here's what stood out.
Having a Quarterback Matters (Falcons 35, Packers 14)
Atlanta had been running third- and fourth-string QBs for two weeks, and Michael Penix's return changed everything. Bijan Robinson went for 29 carries, 194 yards, and two touchdowns, which Dex pointed out was the third-highest score in our league this week and cost $757 in FAB. Drake London piled up nine catches and 194 yards without finding the end zone.
Then there's Kyle Pitts: one catch for five yards. We said if he did nothing against that Green Bay defense, it was full-blown panic mode, and Chiz, a Pitts owner, reported in from the panic. The Falcons pecking order is London, then Bijan, then Pitts, and Pru's warning is the scariest part: "As soon as you don't play him, that's when he does well." As Chiz put it, "He's the worst kind of fantasy player: the most inconsistent." Dex gives him one more week.
Green Bay is a different problem. Nine rushes for 17 yards, Jordan Love throwing 53 times at barely 50 percent, and only Matthew Golden and Christian Watson worth playing. "Nothing good's gonna happen until they fix that O-line," Chiz said.
Ravens 34, Cowboys 33: Perfect Dallas Drama
A tied game, a Ravens drive that ended with a 56-yard field goal and one second left, and Chiz in the "13 seconds" Bills-playoff t-shirt on purpose. Dallas's clock management was the real story. They let it run from 44 seconds to 20, and Dak's next throw sailed eight feet over Pickens' head. Dex's rule: "You want to get down to three or four seconds so the field goal ends it." Add Jerry Jones publicly questioning Schottenheimer, and you've got a defense ranked 29th overall and 31st against the run, giving up 34. Next up: the Texas Bowl.
The Monday Night Train Wreck
With Caleb Williams out, 38-year-old Case Keenum started for Chicago and came out throwing. Luther Burden had a huge game, Loveland finally got looks, and Romeo Doubs dropped a touchdown out of bounds (his season high is 52 yards, brutal for anyone who drafted him as a WR1 or WR2). Saquon's 84 yards, including 25 on the last drive, saved plenty of managers. "There's cut marks on the back of my neck," Chiz said. "That's how close the guillotine came."
Other Week 3 Takeaways
Seahawks vs. Commanders: Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 10-128-2, and Chiz called him "a cheat code right now." Jadarian Price, on the other hand, keeps fumbling. Dex's rookie warning stands: "Rookies are a killer. No matter what round, no matter how high the pedigree."
Bills vs. Chargers: Buffalo turned it over four times and still won. Josh Allen threw two picks, fumbled, and still scored two rushing touchdowns. James Cook ran for 154 and a score. Quentin Johnston dropped a fourth-down hook route, and the Chargers are 0-3 with a brutal schedule. Pru's reminder: two rushing touchdowns a game for Allen "is not sustainable."
Broncos vs. Rams: Los Angeles led 16-0 at halftime and still lost. Sutton and Waddle combined for 14 targets, five catches, and no touchdowns. Davante Adams went 7-137 and could have had two more scores on overthrows. "How did they lose this game?" Chiz asked about the preseason Super Bowl favorite.
NFL Week 4 Games We Love
Rams at Eagles (Dex: if Philly wins, the Rams are 1-3 and "preemptively the best team on paper in the history of the world"), Houston at Dallas ("the Texas Bowl," with CJ Stroud playing for his starting life), and Chiefs at Raiders, both 3-0, with a get-in price around $312 and plenty of Kansas City red expected. "Arrowhead West in the desert," Chiz said.
The Big Question: Should You Stash or Cut Injured Fantasy Football Players?
A Shrewdness Pro member asked how we each think about injured players, and it's the right question heading into byes. Here's how the three of us see it.
Dex: FAB is gold. If your league has IR, use it. If not, ask whether this is someone you'll keep later and whether you can replace him cheaply. "You don't want to overspend on garbage to fix a band-aid problem for a couple weeks." Carrying three injured guys? Trade one for FAB dollars.
Pru: let your bye weeks decide. With byes coming, you can't carry more than one hurt player. With none for three or four weeks, stash one or two. "You start handicapping yourself if you wait until week five to fix your week six bye problem." And look at the other teams: if a manager has three guys on bye, kick your bid up a few dollars and put the heat on him.
Chiz: bye weeks first, then position and tier. A middle-tier-or-better RB is worth holding because RBs are scarce. A week-to-week WR isn't, unless he's elite (Jefferson, JSN, AJ Brown). And the guillotine rule behind all of it: "Remember your goal is to be one point better than the lowest scoring team, or 0.4, whatever it takes. If you're projected top three this week, I'm okay stashing. If you gotta start Mike Evans to survive, this is not the time to stash. Survive first and foremost."
Fantasy football injury watch: Devon Achane is out for the year with a torn ACL, so if you own Ollie Gordon, you probably own a starter. Baker Mayfield is out three to four weeks with a thumb injury, Travis Etienne Jr. (a.k.a. "A-chan") has a hamstring, and Puka Nacua is out a game and a half. Keep an eye on Breece Hall, Justin Jefferson (ankle), and Mike Evans.
Hot, Cold, and Surprising
Dex: Tennessee is God-awful (31st-ranked offense despite a new staff and fresh talent). Minnesota is 3-0 on defense alone, and Dex has "some screen doors for your submarine" if you think they'll finish with the 32nd-ranked offense. Surprise: the 3-0 Raiders.
Chiz: The Chargers are "a turd burger" and "the ick is contagious." Kansas City is rolling, with Kenneth Walker leading the league with 360 rushing yards and a Kelce who looks like "10 years ago Kelce." Surprise: the 2-1 Browns.
Pru: Houston is a mess (Montgomery and Woody Marks combined for 168 rushing yards in three games). The 49ers are elite, with Purdy at a league-best 133 QBR and 98 points scored. Surprise: Tampa Bay's terrible start, with an undrafted free agent at QB.
Fantasy Football Top 10 Most Cut Players: Week 3
Devon Achane (ACL, out for the year)
Drake Maye (third week in a row)
Justin Jefferson (ankle)
Puka Nacua (out a game and a half)
Jadarian Price (fumbles)
Tetairoa McMillan (two catches)
Nico Collins (injured)
Josh Allen (even with two rushing touchdowns)
Jaylen Waddle (another dud for Denver)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (still got you over ten points, which is why you take him high)
Chiz's take on Allen is worth repeating: "We had Allen significantly lower on our board because to get him you've got to draft him early, so the people that got him got a lot less value at the other positions. It's not necessarily worth it to go all in on a Josh Allen." Bidding verdicts: Maye and Price are out, McMillan earns a small flex bid, and Waddle is out. "If you're not the focus of a not-good offense, no thanks."
Fantasy Football Sleepers and Spuds for Week 4
Last week's sleepers didn't help much (Adonai Mitchell never played), but the season hit rate sits at 37 percent against a 33 percent target. This week's targets:
Keenan Allen (22% owned): a clear WR2 in London against Washington.
Darren Waller (14% owned): Carolina against Detroit, a 32nd-ranked pass defense that has already given up three tight end touchdowns. Dex is playing him in three of four leagues.
Ryan Flournoy (Dallas): 18 targets, third behind Lamb and Pickens, against a Houston defense with two good corners and no third.
All three spuds from last week cleared their bar, putting the season spud hit rate at 33 percent. This week's spuds are Omarion Hampton at Seattle, DJ Moore with the Bills at New England, and Jaylen Waddle at San Francisco. As Chiz put it, "99% owned is absurd. Drop him! Trade him, get something for him."
Week four is here, and next week brings the first bye. Prepare early by staying shrewd.
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Stay shrewd, everybody.