October 8, 2026
Week 4 might be the most injury-fueled stretch Chiz can remember, and it reminded us why guillotine fantasy football is the cruelest format going: you can do everything right and still lose your head. Dex, Pru, and Chiz went through the wreckage, the most-cut list, who to bid on, and who to fill in from the bone pile while the first bye week hits. Two of us lost a team this week, so consider this a public service announcement from survivors. Here's what stood out.
The Injury Report: Brace Yourself
"Holy cow," as Chiz put it, every team is being affected. The names that mattered most:
Ja'Marr Chase got hit dirty and is unlikely to play, and his bye week is the week after. Treat him as a two-week absence at least.
Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable, but Chiz says it should read doubtful. Don't count on him.
Saquon Barkley is out again, and his Eagles just lost a starting tackle (and there's a London trip coming).
Rashee Rice pulled up lame early, Ladd McConkey went out early enough to hand managers a zero, and Tank Bigsby landed on IR on top of that. If you were planning to lean on Will Shipley, you're not the only one.
Jadarian Price went on IR after Dex had him slotted in his flex, and it happened after waivers ran.
Tee Higgins is hurt too, so Chase and Higgins could both be out in Cincinnati, and Burrow might be down to Mike Gesicki and not much else.
Tyquan Thornton (Chiefs) dislocated something in the middle of a breakout game. It looked like a break, so a dislocation counts as good news, but he's still looking at a few months.
Jayden Daniels has a chance to play. Watch the news and have a backup ready, but if he's active, start him.
The Chargers' offensive line has been getting worse by the week, and the Broncos' secondary is down to its third and fourth corners. Both of those matter for later in this post.
And then there's the first bye week. Kenneth Walker, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard, and Darren Waller are all off this week. As Dex said, "Who's your fourth string?" Chiz estimates we just eliminated about 20 fantasy-relevant players in one go.
One more thing from the rumor mill: with Thornton down, a Tyreek Hill reunion in Kansas City is on the table. Same coach, same quarterback, same system, but he's old and coming off a major injury, so he's a watch-list sleeper, not a lock. Pru's reminder that Andy Reid loves bringing back familiar faces (Kareem Hunt, Hardman) led to Chiz's prediction that Valdes-Scantling is next in line.
Top 10 Most Cut Players: Verdicts and FAAB Ranges
Pru ran the list, and Dex walked us through who we'd bid on. The through-line: this is a bye-week trap week, so cheap beats expensive.
Ja'Marr Chase: Dex says you'll spend $300-plus on a guy who might not play and then goes on bye. Chiz is more scared of Chase than anyone else on the list: "If he doesn't play this week, his bye week's the next week." Can you afford to stash him?
Rashee Rice: a bye-week bid you can get cheap. Chiz is actually higher on Rice than Chase for that reason. Pru's tip, from past experience with Barkley: when a guy is hurt going into a bye, few managers want him, so a cheap bid can win and then pay off all season.
Saquon Barkley: hamstrings are soft tissue, and he lost a tackle. Bid him as "good," not elite or great. On the Shrewdness FAB calculator, Dex's number is about $105, with $67 on the low end and $172 on the high end. Chiz wouldn't go higher because he still has a bye week to burn.
Dalton Kincaid: out. Buffalo spreads the ball so widely (Shakir, Coleman, Palmer, Knox, and Moore) that nobody gets enough. Pru compared it to Mahomes: frustrating for defenses and for your lineup.
Parker Washington: in. He nearly had a big gain, but stepped out of bounds by a blade of grass. Jacksonville is in London, he's presumptive WR1, and Brian Thomas Jr. has slipped to third.
Travis Kelce: in at a reasonable price, somewhere between $70 and $100. He's on bye, but a post-bye tight end who never needs changing is valuable, and more target share is coming his way with Rice and Thornton hurt.
David Montgomery: hard out. "Fool me once, fool me twice, fool me three god dang times," said Dex. He's averaging about 2.4 yards a carry behind a bad Houston line, and Woody Marks gets the goal-line work. Chiz compared him to watching Ashton Jeanty last year: "Every time he gets the ball, there's a guy in the backfield."
Ladd McConkey: the Chargers are 0-4 and likely to be cautious. Chiz is out. Dex and Pru would throw $15 to $20 at him as a sixth-man bench stash if you have the room, and nothing real.
D'Andre Swift: in. Pru owns Kyle Monangai, so she's not chasing him herself, but she still likes Swift to get the lion's share in Ben Johnson's run-heavy offense. He's the No. 12 scoring back with Monangai right behind at No. 13 (and questionable), and Dex says the floor is safe even if it's seven. Two fumbles in three games and only two catches a game are the downsides.
Cam Skattebo: a flex, not more. Chiz wouldn't go above $50, and Dex puts him at $70 to $105 if you need a multi-week flex. The problem is Jameis Winston's offense, where there are no check-downs. "Jameis ain't dumping it. He's hucking it." Chiz also pointed out that Skattebo has scored less than Omarion Hampton and David Montgomery, and has fewer points than Brian Robinson and Aaron Jones. He thinks the New York market is inflating the hype.
The Special Topic: Never Discount Random Chaos
"Every week's a playoff week," Dex reminded us. You can bank your FAB, build a deep bench, and still go out on a Saturday injury or a slide at the two-yard line.
Dex walked through the anatomy of his own elimination. Jadarian Price hit IR midweek and Rachaad White was ruled out on Saturday, both after waivers had run, T.J. Hockenson slid at the two-yard line when Arizona was up 15-10 (a smart real-life play that was a disaster for fantasy), and Kittle took a 56-yard house call for the other team's managers in the last two minutes. Then Jahmyr Gibbs, who'd been scoring 30 to 40 a week, got 15 carries for 46 yards and four dump-offs for 31. His team scored 84 points and still got chopped. "You should not go out with 84 points this early in a guillotine season." The scores in his other leagues were in the 50s, 60s, and 70s.
Chiz was eliminated in his neighborhood league too, and he dug into the lesson. He kept his FAB in reserve so he wouldn't run dry in the weeks ahead, which he thinks was the right play, but Kyler Murray's missing touchdown, Josh Downs scoring four points, Trey McBride putting up 10, and Bucky Irving scoring six all added up. His real regret was his first-round pick, Saquon Barkley.
Chiz listed the running backs he could have drafted instead who have outscored Barkley so far, including Rachaad White, Tyler Allgeier, Alvin Kamara, Tony Pollard, Keaton Mitchell, Woody Marks, RJ Harvey, and even Atlanta's backup, Brian Robinson. Barkley hasn't had a double-digit game in four weeks. His takeaways:
Your first-round pick has to be the surest thing you can find. An older back near the cliff, on a worse team, is not that.
Age matters, and so does availability. Chiz's lesson is to lean toward guys who don't miss games: Josh Allen (who Dex says is better picked up on waivers after his first chop, so you don't overpay), Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and younger receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, rather than an aging Chase.
Don't beat yourself up. "Luck goes a huge way."
All three of us are still alive in the Shrewdness listener league, which Pru says is more competitive than our other leagues. Chiz says the blade is "really starting to scratch my neck up."
Best of the Bone Pile (40% Owned or Less)
These are the fill-ins for Week 5, built to get you through an injury or the first bye week.
Quarterbacks
Pru: Geno Smith against Cleveland, which has the 23rd-ranked pass defense. The Jets will be playing from behind and passing.
Chiz: Jacoby Brissett against Detroit's "dog balls defense." Group favorite, and Pru called it the tastiest matchup of the bunch.
Dex: Michael Penix at home against a Lamar-less Baltimore, with that Atlanta line playing well.
Running backs
Chiz: Tyler Allgeier against Detroit, with Jeremiyah Love questionable. Allgeier has also been getting the goal-line carries.
Pru: Brian Robinson Jr. He scored three of Atlanta's five rushing touchdowns (a franchise record), and his points have climbed from 8.7 to 11 to 25 while he gets 10 to 12 carries a week behind Bijan.
Dex: Will Shipley, the last man standing in the Philly backfield. A bad matchup against a top-two run defense, but even bad matchups give you volume: 15 to 20 carries and some dump-offs. He's third on the list.
Wide receivers
Dex: Trey Harris against a Broncos secondary missing its top two corners. If McConkey is out, Harris is the slot with volume. "Run to the stink."
Pru: Khalif Raymond, who keeps getting targets in a revolving-door Chicago QB room.
Chiz: Malik Washington (Miami), who's the best guy on a bad team. His four games so far: 5-67, 5-56, 4-43, 3-53, with no touchdowns yet, and a banged-up Bengals defense is next. Dex said you can get him "for a bag of Doritos" with a $5 bid. He was the group's favorite.
Tight ends
Pru: Michael Mayer in Vegas, with plenty of two-tight-end sets. Chiz added that he stays on the field because he's a good blocker.
Chiz: Mike Gesecki in Cincinnati, since Burrow may be down both starting receivers.
Dex: T.J. Hockenson, who went 13 for 119 last week and looked like Trey McBride. Chiz's note: "Murray just likes the tight end." Pru said Hockenson is the most sure thing of the three.
Official Sleepers and Spuds
Sleepers: Dex went with Trey Harris (9% owned) against Denver. Chiz picked Malik Washington (31% owned) against Cincinnati. Pru took Cooper Kupp (10% owned) against San Francisco. As Pru put it, "It's dicey, but he's available."
Spuds: All three of us are fading David Montgomery against Tennessee, Omarion Hampton against Denver (a team that's likely to throw), and Cam Skattebo against Washington (a strong run defense, and Pru wants us all to notice rookie Sonny Styles). Hampton is still owned in about 97% of leagues. "They're either hurt or equally terrible," Pru said.
The Pick of the Week
This week's free pick comes from Pru: Chicago Bears -2.5 at Green Bay. Pru's argument: Chicago has been running over people even with a backup quarterback (Tyson Bagent, who Chiz called "a lot tougher than their starter"), Green Bay gave up a ton of rushing yards to Atlanta, and the Packers can't run the ball themselves, so they're one-dimensional. Pru has Chicago winning by a field goal. Dex isn't fully on board yet because of the history in this matchup, and Chiz says he'll get there.
On the track record: the Shrewdness is 7-for-9 on game picks over the last three weeks, 9-for-12 on teasers, and has hit two parlays in four weeks (the other one missed by a game). Game picks are up to 58%, with an overall mark of 51%. Chiz says that by season's end we'll "probably be broadcasting from the yacht we bought."
Pro members get every pick, including player props and the weekly parlay teaser.
Week 5 brings the first bye, and Week 6 is a huge one, so think ahead. Dex says to start looking at it now. Until next week: be prepared for randomness and chaos, hope you keep your head, and stay shrewd.
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Stay shrewd, everybody.